Election fever has caught political parties in the land two years ahead. Coalitions has started because it has proven the sure way to take a ruling party out of power. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has used it successfully to dethrone the People’s Democratic Party, a party fast becoming a shadow of itself. In the buildup to 2023 elections the party was still a very strong force to reckon with until the Atiku factor happened on it. The party and its handlers put Atiku’s ambition ahead of equity and presidential power rotation. Current Minister od Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, who was then Governor of Rivers State, was hell bent on ensuring that Atiku Abubakar would not replace President Muhammadu Buhari because a northerner should not replace another.
But Atiku and his supporters were focused on delivering the man as Nigeria’s next president. Nyesom Wike was bent on truncating that move. He insisted that there must be a change in power. But Atiku was on an irreversible mission. At the Primaries Aminu Tambuwal played a last minute joker which truncated Wike’s move to clinch the Presidential ticket of Peoples Democratic Party. When the die was cast, and it was becoming obvious that Wike was on the verge of beating Atiku, Tambuwal told his supporters to vote for Atiku. Wike lost. Reports later emerged that Wike wanted to be picked as running mate. Atiku would have no such thing.
Meanwhile Wike had literally pushed Peter Obi out of the People’s Democratic Party where he had angled to get the ticket. Wike had reportedly said he would ensure that Peter Obi lost the primaries even within delegates from Anambra State. Peter got the hint early and left the party. He had garnered so much good will that the people simply followed him. He became the peoples’ President. Markets literally shut down when he shows up. He was, and is still loved beyond measure. He moved to a relatively obscure party and made it popular. The truth is that Labour Party stood on the shoulders of Peter Obi. The party won 110 elective positions including one Governor, six senators, 34 members of House of Representatives amongst others.
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Peter was the rock on which the party stood. Nyesom Wike, in his sober moments, declared that Peter Obi was the hero of the 2023 elections. He was right. He blew like hurricane across the political firmament. Peter is a rich man, by every standard, but the masses see him as one of them. This maybe on account of his lifestyle and frugal management of funds. The Nigerian masses have detached him as different from the oppressors who flaunt wealth. Some of his detractors have said he is a pretender but the people do not see him in that light. His followership is organic. He seems to represent the hope of the common Nigerian against those who have fed fat on public patrimony. People who see politics as transactional .
He has thus become the beautiful bride of Nigerian politics. Conventional politicians, who do not know that the train of their brand of politics left the station with the 2023 elections, have seen Obi as the hurdle between them and their style. Atuku seemed to have seen what that people now see in Obi when he picked him as running mate in 2019. But Obi’s popularity has grown in leaps and bounds since then. But for Nyesom Wike, Tinubu would not have made it to the Villa. It was revealed that when Atiku failed to pick Wike as his running mate, he switched support. It was the abracadabra that happened in Rivers State that gave President Bola Tinubu the ultimate win. I am tempted to believe that had Atiku picked Wike, he probably would have won that election. That is in the past.
But Atiku has not buried his ambition. He actually missed the rather golden opportunity way back in 2003 when virtually all the Governors lined up behind him to take the party ticket and run. He declined. Some of his political allies walked away. He had continued to try without success. But things have since changed. The emergence of Peter Obi has changed the entire political scenario. The Nigerian people seem to have found new hope in Obi. He told them there was so much waste in the cost of governance. He told them how he cut cost of governance in his time as governor, how elected officials buy exotic cars at the expense of the people. They live like royalty. Government positions thus become jack pots for those who make it to elective positions. They know that Peter Obi, by his nature, would not go in that direction.
The people identify with his frugality. It was manifested in the election of 2023 were his personal goodwill placed him third in an election where he got the labour party ticket only nine months to elections. The social media became the campaign ground, given that young people in that forum took it upon themselves to push his campaign. The trend has started again, an indication that the same trend will repeat. The opposition has formed a coalition, which was the strategy applied by the ruling party to get the Peoples Democratic Party out of power. They have come together but all those who contested for the Presidency at the primary or major election have not dropped their ambitions. Top on the list is Atiku Abubakar. He wants to run a record fourth time. From every indication he will get the ticket of the alliance, which maybe why Peter Obi has remained in his labour party, in spite of the crisis rocking it. Members of the party know that he is the party’s life wire. He helped the party get 6.1 million votes.
Now Atiku wants to run, and it would seem that elites in Northern Nigeria have his back. The implication is that the votes will be split, and tribal sentiments would come to play. The People’s Democratic Party appear to have been decapitated, going by the presence of some people in the party, such as Wike, who evidently works for Tinubu. If the coalition does not come in a united front, and present one candidate, possibly Peter Obi, President Bola Tinubu would have a smooth ride to a second tenure. The structure which Atiku used in 2023 has been decapitated. Peter Obi has an organic following, not driven by any structure. That following has not diminished. If Atiku insists on running, he would inadvertently return Tinubu to office.
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