• Analysts say thuggery, vote-buying, power of incumbency, use of force by ruling parties in states might influence 2027 polls
• Factors that worked against opposition coalition
By Omoniyi Salaudeen
The results of the by-elections held on Saturday, August 16, across 13 states show a clear and consistent pattern: the ruling party in each state largely consolidated its hold on power by winning the contested seats.
In the pre-election period, some people had hoped for an upset, but the results pointed to a different outcome. The outcome shows less about a shift in political power and more about the reinforcement of the existing status quo, where the ruling party’s influence proved to be the most decisive factor. This trend serves as a powerful indicator of the significant influence of incumbency in Nigerian politics.
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Incumbency
This was the most significant factor across the 13 states. Owing to the power of incumbency, state governors and their ruling parties possess immense resources and well-established political machineries. They have the financial capacity to mobilise voters, and their control of local government structures gives them an on-the-ground advantage that opposition parties find difficult to overcome in a low-turnout election like a by-election.
From the far flung Northern states of Adamawa, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Gombe, Taraba to Anambra, Edo, Oyo, Ogun, the results highlight the overwhelming power of incumbency in various constituencies. As a result, the opposition found it extremely difficult to overcome this entrenched power. In Ogun State, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), led by Governor Dapo Abiodun, successfully defeated the opposition in the Remo Federal Constituency by-election, a crucial victory that validated the party’s strength in the state. Also, in Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured a landslide victory in the Ibadan North Federal Constituency by-election, where the PDP candidate won convincingly, defeating the APC. This result solidified Makinde’s position as a dominant political force in the state.
The same scenario played out in Kogi State where APC, led by the new Governor Usman Ododo, confirmed its dominance by winning the Dekina/Okura State Constituency by-election.
Similarly, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which is the ruling party in Anambra, successfully won both the Anambra South Senatorial District and Onitsha North state constituency seats. This outcome demonstrates Governor Charles Soludo’s firm grip on the state’s political landscape. In Edo, the APC won the gubernatorial election in the state and secured the Edo Central Senatorial District seat, further consolidating its control of the state’s political power.
Much more interesting is Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency of Kaduna State, where the APC candidate, Felix Bagudu, secured a commanding victory, with a significant margin over his closest rival from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The victory in Kajuru is particularly noteworthy, as the APC overturned a long-standing opposition stronghold. In Zaria Kewaye State Constituency, the APC’s Isa Haruna Ihamo was declared the winner, defeating candidates from the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the PDP. The APC also sustained its winning streak in Basawa state constituency by clinching the seat.
Performance of opposition
This trend suggests that the viability of the new emerging opposition coalition might have been, at least for now, overhyped. While the coalition leaders may have projected a strong showing, the results on the ground tell a different story. Contrary to the expectation, the by-elections showed that the PDP, despite its internal crises, remains a stronger opposition force on the ground. The PDP’s victories in places like Oyo and Adamawa confirm that its name recognition and established structures still hold considerable weight. It shows that untested coalition gives the impression that the opposition is disorganised and fragmented. While the goal is to form a unified front, the initial results suggest the opposite: that the various opposition factions are still struggling to translate their alliance into tangible political gains. The by-elections were a crucial test, and their results suggest that the road ahead for this new opposition alliance is far more difficult than many had anticipated. The results highlight the challenges opposition parties face in unseating a determined and well-funded ruling party, even in local contests.
Despite significant pre-election tinkle, the new opposition coalition platform failed to win a single seat in the by-elections. The perception that the coalition’s viability is overhyped stems from the gap between its public posturing and its actual electoral performance. The coalition has been making headlines due to its adoption of ADC as the platform for the next general election and its ability to attract high-profile political figures. However, these by-election results suggest that national-level realignments and media attention have not yet translated into grassroots electoral success. However, while the by-election results may be seen as a setback, they are not necessarily a definitive conclusion about the coalition’s future. The new political force is still in its early stages. The real test of its viability will come in the 2027 general elections, where it will have more time to organize, consolidate its forces, and build a more effective grassroots campaign. For now, the by-election results provide a dose of reality that tempers the hype surrounding the coalition’s prospects. Specifically, the by-elections were a major reality check for the ADC. The party’s abysmal performance, failing to secure a single seat, demonstrates that it lacks the grassroots structure and widespread popularity required to challenge the entrenched power of the APC and PDP. By aligning with the ADC, leading coalition figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and their allies are betting on the party’s potential, but the by-election results suggest that the groundwork has not yet been laid. The ADC’s poor performance indicates a significant disconnect between the coalition’s national profile and its on-the-ground electoral power. The true test of this strategic gamble will be in the 2027 general elections, where the coalition will have a much wider field to prove its viability. While personal appeal may be strong factor in political calculation, the recent by-election results primarily demonstrated the overwhelming power of the state’s political machinery and incumbency, rather than the appeal of individual figures in the opposition.
However, the by-elections are not necessarily a reflection of the coalition’s long-term prospects. The alliance is focused on the 2027 general elections. As such, the by-elections may simply be a learning experience to identify weaknesses and build a stronger, more coordinated campaign.
Ordinarily, by-elections are often seen as a mini-referendum on the performance and popularity of the state’s sitting governor. But the results from the last elections overwhelmingly suggest public support for the current leadership in these states. Being in control of power, state governors and ruling parties have enormous resources and influence that they can leverage to mobilize voters and secure victory in any elections. The outcome of the by-elections consistently showed that party structure and the power of incumbency are far more influential than the personal appeal of individual politicians, especially in a one-off contest. The ruling parties in each state were able to leverage their control of the local government, resources, and party faithful to ensure victory, making it very difficult for the opposition, regardless of the popularity of their leaders to achieve an appreciable showing in the election. By and large, the by-election results do not reflect the personal appeal of ADC figures; rather, they show the opposite. Despite the ADC being the new platform for a political coalition that includes prominent figures like Atiku, Peter Obi, the party failed to win a single seat. This suggests that while these figures may have personal popularity, such appeal has not yet been effectively translated into grassroots electoral victories for the party.
Violence and vote-buying
Additionally, the election shows an entrenched pattern of violence and vote-buying, signalling a potent danger ahead of future elections. Numerous reports and allegations of vote-buying were made across different constituencies.
For example, in the Ibadan North Federal Constituency in Oyo State, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate openly alleged that vote-buying was rampant in several wards. In Ogun State, there were reports of arrests involving individuals allegedly linked to political parties who were found with cash for vote inducement. This practice turns the democratic process into a cash and carry affair, eroding the integrity of the ballot and disenfranchising voters who do not participate in the illegal exchange. This consistently points to a pattern of electoral malpractice which is a cause for concern for future elections and the growth of democracy. The repetition of these patterns—from the general elections to the by-elections—deepens public cynicism and distrust in the electoral process. The low voter turnout recorded in many of the constituencies has been linked to a direct consequence of this practice. When voters feel that their vote does not count and that the outcome is predetermined by money or thuggery, they become apathetic and disengaged, which is a major threat to Nigeria’s democracy. The by-elections served as a stark reminder of the deep-seated challenges facing Nigeria’s electoral system. The regular pattern of violence and vote-buying suggests that unless the root causes are addressed, these maladies will likely escalate in future, larger-scale elections, posing a serious threat to the credibility and integrity of the country’s democracy.
Incidents of violence and intimidation were also reported. In the Anambra South Senatorial by-election, the state governor, Charles Soludo, publicly stated that his commissioner was assaulted by suspected thugs. The opposition candidate in the Ogun by-election also accused the ruling party of deploying thugs to chase voters away from polling units. These acts of violence are aimed at suppressing voter turnout and disrupting the electoral process in areas where a political party anticipates a loss. All together, these trends erode public trust in the leadership selection process and undermine participatory democracy.
2027 predictions
Former Deputy Governor of Ogun State, Senator Adegbenga Kaka, commenting on the aftermath of the by-elections in an interview with Sunday Sun, identified some fundamental mistakes the coalition forces made which worked against them in the election. He noted that the leaders of the group committed an error of judgment, assuming they could go into an election on the platform of a party whose ideological orientation they knew nothing about. He said: “Those people who are talking of coalition, rather than individually going to their respective wards, to declare for the party of their choice, they say they are ganging up. How long have you seen a gang up being of any effect in Nigeria? Coalition has never worked. You either merge or form your own party. So, they are facing a crisis already. And they are not likely to recover from that crisis before 2027. That is the pathetic part of it. I don’t see them as a serious group. They should go and learn lessons from the past attempt at forming a coalition. They destroyed their own party and hijacked the political party of another person. There is no way it can work. The owners of the party they took over like a thief that came into a house in the middle of the night are crying foul. They refused to join ADC when ADC was being formed. Why are they just discovering the party now? You can see that there is no ideological orientation. How many of those that adopted ADC as a platform has gone through the party’s manifestos? Are they to the left, right or central in their ideological orientation? They are just deceiving themselves. And the nation will not take them seriously.”
He also attributed the overwhelming victory recorded by the ruling parties in their respective states to the power of incumbency and gullibility of the electorate. “Though the power of incumbency played a major role in the outcome of the elections, it also reflects the quality or gullibility of the electorates. If the quality of the electorates is poor, even under performance will be regarded as high performance. With the repeated lies by the parties in control of power, their performance assessment will take the coloration of a true performance. If they are gullible and satisfied with the so-called performance, there is nothing anybody can do about it. Since politics is a game of number, they will continue to vote the same way out of ignorance.
“The beneficiaries will continue to play on the gullibility of the electorates. So, rightly or wrongly, the outcome of the election is an indirect way of confirming the popularity of the ruling parties in the states. We still have many rivers to cross.
“Electoral violence, power of incumbency and deployment of security personnel have been part and parcel of our election processes. We have to live with these until we are able to make changes. The earlier the voters become wiser, the better for our democracy so that election will not always be for the highest bidders,” he posited.
Alhaji Abdulkarim Daiyabu, a former President of the Kano State Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture, also lamenting the growing culture of violence and electoral manipulation, urged the electorate to be wise in the choices they make while casting their ballots in the future elections.
“As far I am concerned, what we have witnessed is not an election, it is selection. The outcome shows how state governors use power of incumbency to rig elections. It is very unfortunate. So unfortunate that we have reached a point where university professors can come so low to the extent of rigging elections for school dropouts to become either a governor of a state or the President of the country. When we have a situation where only the government in power wins an election, it means they are using the power of incumbency to control everything. For me, what we are running is not a democracy. People have to wake up and realise that it is their right to choose trustworthy candidates to lead them,” he concluded.
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