After months of negotiations, the opposition political coalition last week adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its platform for the 2027 general election. It has former Senate President, David Mark, and ex-governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola, as interim National Chairman and Secretary, respectively. Prominent members of the coalition include Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and others. Naturally, most members of the coalition will come from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and others. David Mark has said that the ADC is on a rescue mission.
With this move, it is no longer in doubt the platform the opposition political coalition will use as the special purpose vehicle to contest the 2027 election. With the implosion in PDP and the crisis in the LP, the two major opposition parties, some Nigerians feel that the opposition is being gradually whittled or rendered ineffective for the 2027 election. The ADC coalition has amply demonstrated that the opposition is alive and kicking. Having a virile opposition is good for our democracy.
The mass defection of some political heavyweights in Delta and Akwa Ibom states to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) fueled the speculation that Nigeria is sliding into a one-party state. Even the APC leadership celebrated such defections with great fanfare. Although President Bola Tinubu assured Nigerians that the country will not slide into a one-party state under his watch, he openly derided the opposition for being in disarray and would wish them to be so. The president was also quoted as saying that “those who have triggered the early politics in the perdition of the coalition suddenly, don’t pay them any attention; they are the political IDPs. Don’t give them a home; the hope is here.” Are they really the political IDPs the President inferred? Will the ADC coalition fly? How far can the coalition go? Only time will tell. Like a woman, tomorrow is pregnant and nobody knows what it will deliver.
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Although the 2027 election season is still far-off, the politicians are getting set for the epic political battle. The opposition might have learnt enough lessons from the 2023 exercise which they bungled by lack of a coalition. The 2023 election presented an easy route for the opposition to get back to power after the colossal loss of the 2015 poll. They refused to work together as a team and the outcome surprised them. The lack-luster performance of Muhamadu Buhari would have ensured a smooth sail of the opposition into Aso Rock. But it was never to be as APC coasted home to victory.
Will history repeat itself in 2027 or will it be different? Only time will tell. As things stand now, the 2027 election will be thrilling and interesting because it will be a fierce contest between two strong political parties, the APC and the ADC. It is no longer going to be a walkover for one big political party and weaker parties as being envisaged in some quarters. The contest will be between an incumbent seeking for a reelection and his challenger.
Based on the numerous endorsements of President Tinubu for a second term by party supporters across the country, his name will surely be on the ballot. It will take some time for the ADC to produce its candidates for the contest considering that their gathering is just being perfected at the moment. They will contend with teething problems associated with a new association, especially power-sharing arrangement and who will be its presidential candidate and other posts come 2027 election cycle. It will contend with the issue of power rotation and tenure. Its choice of presidential candidate will make or mar is fortune in 2027. They will contend with the dust raised by former presidential candidate of the ADC, Dumebi Kachikwu. He had warned the opposition coalition that the party is not for sale. How they resolve these issues will determine their political future. Any faulty arrangement will see them repeating the grievous mistake of 2023. If they get it right, the rest would be history.
Despite the cavalier dismissive attitude of the APC leadership over the opposition political coalition, it must appreciate the fact that the political tempo and texture has changed and earlier permutations, assumptions and calculations can no longer hold. The mass defections into the APC may at last be problematic if the new members are not carefully managed and integrated into the party.
Defections by party leaders and their few aides and supporters do not necessarily translate to electoral victory in some instances. Most people that vote during elections don’t belong to a political party. They may have sympathy for a political party or the other. Such sympathy can change without notice. Therefore, APC should not bank on those who defected to its fold as a sign that victory is already assured as some party stalwarts are implying. They should not take the voters for granted or think that they have the voters on their side. They should also not underrate the opposition or quickly dismiss them. Although it has the incumbency advantage, that fact needs not be over-stretched. After all, President Goodluck Jonathan lost power in 2015 despite being an incumbent.
Most importantly, the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in our elections needs to be clearly defined so that the citizens can still believe and trust the electoral system. There is urgent need to overhaul the electoral system in such a way that it will be more transparent and credible. The outcome of our elections must reflect the wishes of the electorate. The votes must count. It must also be seen to be so. The people and not necessarily the courts should determine the winners of our elections. When the people lose confidence in the electoral system, voter apathy will set in, voter turn-out will reduce and the credibility of the poll will be in doubt.
Why do Nigerians celebrate the June 12 election? They do so every year because of its transparency and credibility. It has been described as the freest, fairest and most credible election in the annals of the country. The June 12 election outcome was a product of our indigenous Option A4 electoral system invented by the then electoral umpire, Prof. Humphrey Nwosu, of blessed memory. Rather than bungle the 2027 exercise, we may go back to Nwosu’s Option A4. There is nothing wrong in doing so. Alternatively, we can modify it to make it suit our present circumstances if need be.
Election, which enables us to choose our leaders every four years, ought to be a celebration of democracy. Unfortunately, some politicians have turned it into a ‘do or die’ affair. They have turned it into an arena to buy votes, suppress and intimidate voters, and even manipulate election results. Apart from making INEC conduct a free and fair poll, the courts must sit up in presiding over election matters. As priests in the temple of justice, judges handling election petition matters must do so with utmost fairness and justice. On no account should they pervert the course of justice.
Above all, our politicians should see politics as service to the people. It is not about themselves and their family members, friends, willing supporters and cheer leaders. Let our politicians change their orientation in politics and use politics to serve the people and develop the country. Let us hope that our politicians have learnt enough lessons and would now play the game according to the rules.
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