•President stabilising economy, but benefits of his reforms not yet felt
A public affairs analyst, Nkumogu Obadiah Mbila, has warned that the N34.15 trillion fresh loan request by the Nigerian government will increase the country’s Nigeria’s debt stock to N183 trillion, adding strain to the country’s already burdened loan servicing obligations.
While praising President Bola Tinubu for taking bold steps to stabilise the economy, he poignantly noted that Nigerians are yet to experience tangible benefits.
In this interview with VINCENT KALU, the evangelist and politician pointed out that the failure of governance and poor leadership have contributed to the collapse of the national security architecture.
What’s your assessment of the Tinubu administration in the last two years?
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has made significant strides in various areas, despite facing numerous challenges. Here’s a breakdown of their achievements and ongoing issues.
In the area of security, the administration has prioritised national security, freeing over 4,600 hostages, neutralising more than 9,300 terrorists, and arresting over 7,000 terrorists and bandits. They’ve also invested in modernising security forces and recruiting new personnel. In the area of economic reforms, Tinubu’s administration has implemented crucial reforms to stabilise the economy, including establishing a Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform Committee to reduce tax burdens and reform the tax system.
On agriculture and food security, the administration declared a state of emergency on food security, launching the National Agricultural Development Fund with N100 billion to address agricultural financing challenges. He has made efforts to digitalise government services, reducing opportunities for corrupt practices, and investing in advanced technologies like block chain and artificial intelligence.
Despite the progress he has made, insecurity remains a significant issue, with various regions still experiencing threats from terrorists and bandits. The administration faces challenges in addressing unemployment and corruption, with some critics arguing that policies like the Tax Reform Bill may burden small and medium-sized enterprises.
However, while the administration has taken steps to stabilise the economy, the impact of these reforms is still not being felt, and some Nigerians are yet to experience tangible benefits.
The Federal government is mulling s taking a fresh N34 trillion loan, with the nation’s debt profile now getting to about N144 trillion. What is your view on this?
Nigeria’s debt is projected to surpass N180 trillion after President Bola Tinubu requested approval for additional loans totalling N34.15 trillion. This fresh loan request will increase Nigeria’s debt stock by over N38 trillion, adding strain to the country’s already burdened loan servicing obligations amid naira devaluation and limited revenue generation. The total public debt is expected to hit N183 trillion, up from nearly N145 trillion as of December 2024.
The implications are: higher debt servicing costs may divert funds from essential public services; naira devaluation and limited revenue generation may exacerbate the debt situation. There is the need for prudence. Experts warn that caution is necessary to ensure borrowed funds are utilised effectively for impactful projects and reforms. The National Assembly’s approval will be crucial in determining the fate of this loan request and its potential impact on Nigeria’s economy.
Why is the security situation in the country escalating?
The security situation in Nigeria is escalating due to a combination of factors. The menace of unemployment and poverty has contributed significantly to the rising insecurity in Nigeria. Many young people are left with no choice but to engage in criminal activities due to lack of economic opportunities.
Again, elite exploitation of ethnicity and religious differences has also fuelled insecurity in the country. This has led to divisions and mistrust among different groups, creating an environment conducive to violence and crime.
More so, corruption within the security apparatus and the government’s inability to effectively address security challenges has emboldened criminal elements. The porous borders and inadequate security infrastructure have also made it easier for terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers to operate.
Governance failure and poor leadership have contributed to the collapse of the national security architecture. The ruling elite’s perception of peace as the absence of overt violence and hostility has also hindered efforts to address the root causes of insecurity.
The duo of greed and grievances has manifested in various categories of banditry, ranging from mass abductions to killing of innocent citizens. This has led to a culture of violence and lawlessness in many parts of the country. Ethno-religious tensions have also contributed to the insecurity in Nigeria. Communal clashes stemming from ethnic and religious differences have led to widespread fear and economic disruption. The presence of extremist groups like Boko Haram has led to widespread fear and instability, particularly in the North-Eastern region of the country.
There’s a trending video/photo showing where Boko Haram overran a military formation in Yobe State. What does this suggest?
The implications of Boko Haram terrorists overrunning a military base in Yobe State are significant and far-reaching. The attack highlights the vulnerability of military installations and the ability of terrorists to launch sophisticated attacks, potentially leading to increased insecurity in the region. The terrorists may have seized military equipment, including arms and ammunition, which could be used to fuel further attacks. The attack might have resulted in casualties among military personnel and civilians, and could lead to further displacement of people in the region.
The attack may prompt a significant response from the government, including increased military presence and operations in the region. The attack could also have economic implications for the local community, including disruption to trade and commerce. It’s worth noting that the Nigerian military has been working to combat Boko Haram and other terrorist groups in the region and the attack may be a setback in these efforts. However, the military is likely to regroup and respond to the attack in a bid to regain control and ensure security in the region.
According to some people, two years to the 2015 general elections, Boko Haram was at its peak. Again, two years to the 2027 general elections, the killings in the North are exacerbating. What do you think about this?
The argument that there’s political colouration in the escalation of insecurity, particularly in the North is a perspective that warrants consideration. The timing of Boko Haram’s peak activities during President Jonathan’s tenure, particularly two years before the 2015 general elections, does suggest a possible connection between the insurgency and the political landscape.
Similarly, the current escalation of insecurity in the North, two years before the 2027 general elections, raises questions about potential political motivations behind these attacks.
Nigeria’s history of political instability, ethnic and religious tensions, and the struggle for power and resources might contribute to the perception that insecurity is being exploited for political gain.
The lack of trust in government institutions and the perception that security agencies might be politicised could fuel speculation about the motivations behind the escalation of insecurity.
However, it’s essential to note that insecurity in Nigeria is a complex issue with multiple factors contributing to its escalation, including poverty, unemployment, corruption, and governance failures. Without concrete evidence, it’s challenging to conclusively determine the extent to which politics plays a role in the escalation of insecurity. However, the fact that escalation has been witnessed in the build up to 2015 general election, and the confession of some Northern politicians could lend credence to political motivated insecurity.
A nuanced understanding of the situation requires considering various perspectives, including those of security experts, politicians, and local communities.
Tinubu has created development commissions for the six zones. What’s your position on this?
President Bola Tinubu has signed bills establishing development commissions for six geo-political zones in Nigeria, aiming to promote regional development and address structural deficiencies. These commissions aim to decentralise governance and promote infrastructural development in every geo-political zone. By driving industrial growth, job creation, and social development, the commissions are expected to improve the quality of life for Nigerians.
President Tinubu’s administration is working to ensure targeted development initiatives reach all parts of the country. The success of these commissions will depend on effective implementation and management to deliver tangible results and rejuvenate regional economies.
What do make of the accusation that both Buhari and Tinubu are nepotistic? Who is worse, in your view?
Determining who is deeper in nepotism between Buhari and Tinubu depends on perspective. Here are some viewpoints. Former Senator Shehu Sani believes Buhari’s nepotism was worse. He cited that around 30 federal appointments were given to individuals from Katsina State, Buhari’s home state. Sani argues that critics have short memories and were silent when Buhari favoured his region.
Conversely, Senator Abaribe thinks Tinubu’s nepotism is worse. As a senator, Abaribe expressed that Buhari’s nepotism was overlooked, but Tinubu’s has deepened. The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) criticises Tinubu for alleged nepotism in key appointments, particularly favouring Yoruba officials. They cite the extension of Mrs. Kemi Nanna Nandap’s tenure as comptroller-general of the Nigeria Immigration Service as an example.
However, Some Nigerians feel Tinubu’s administration is overly represented by Yoruba individuals in key positions, echoing concerns similar to those raised during Buhari’s tenure about favouritism towards certain regions. Ultimately, assessing the depth of nepotism depends on individual perspectives and experiences. Both administrations have faced criticism for alleged favouritism.
Opposition political parties are forming a coalition to oust Tinubu in 2027. What is your take on this?
The planned coalition of political parties in Nigeria aims to strengthen democracy by uniting forces to advance people’s interests and promote inclusiveness. This alliance includes major parties like: People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Allied People’s Movement (APM), Young Progressives Party (YPP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).
The coalition’s objectives are: By uniting parties, they aim to create a stronger, more stable democratic system. The alliance seeks to advance the interests of the people and ensure that all voices are heard, and also aims to prevent any single party from dominating the political landscape. This development could potentially lead to a more robust and diverse political environment in Nigeria, with parties working together to achieve common goals. However, the success of this coalition will depend on the parties’ ability to work together effectively and address the country’s challenges.
The South-East says that Tinubu is not fair to the region, citing the exclusion of the zone from the eight dams approved for reconstruction, as well as not including the region in the eight-man census committee, among others. What do say to this?
The South-East region in Nigeria has expressed feelings of being short-changed by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, despite his efforts to address their concerns. Here are some key points. President Tinubu scored only one per cent of votes in the South-East region during the presidential election, which may contribute to the perception of inadequate representation.
Although Tinubu’s administration has initiated projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, some sections of the South-East region may not feel adequately included in the development plans. Tinubu’s administration has launched skills acquisition programmes aimed at unlocking the region’s economic potential, with a goal to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030. The administration has expressed commitment to establishing peace in the South-East, addressing economic stagnation, and preventing sinister operations by economic saboteurs.
Some South-East leaders, like Minister of Works, David Umahi, have expressed support for Tinubu’s administration, citing fairness and equal treatment of all zones. However, others, like former Governor Peter Obi, may still be undecided about fully backing the administration.
Tinubu’s administration has also made promises to integrate the South-East into the federal government’s economic development plan, focusing on stability, education, infrastructure, and industrialisation. The success of these initiatives will likely determine the level of support for the administration in the region.
How then can Tinubu appease the South-East?
To appease the South-East region, President Bola Tinubu’s administration can focus on the following key areas: In the first place, his determination to utilise available resources to establish peace in the South-East, addressing economic stagnation and preventing sinister operations by economic saboteurs. Running an inclusive government that addresses marginalisation and promotes stability, education, infrastructure, and industrialisation in the region can help win the trust of the South-East people.
Again, investing in critical infrastructure projects like roads, rail, and power can positively impact the region and the nation at large, as promised during his visit to Anambra State. Working constructively with serving political elites and stakeholders in the South-East can help address security challenges and promote development goals. Gradual de-radicalisation of groups like IPOB and unconditional release of incarcerated members could help restore relative peace in the region. Implementing policies that address economic stagnation and promote inclusive growth can help alleviate the suffering of the South-East people.
Delivering on promises made during the campaign trail, such as transforming the South-East into the ‘Taiwan of Africa,’ can help build trust and support for the administration.
Are you not worried of Nigeria becoming a one-party state?
The concern about Nigeria becoming a one-party state is valid, given the current political landscape. A one-party state can lead to reduced diversity in representation, potentially silencing minority voices. Without a strong opposition, the ruling party may face less accountability and scrutiny. Opposition views might be marginalised, limiting the exchange of ideas and healthy debate.
However, Nigeria’s constitution and democratic institutions are designed to promote multiparty democracy. The country’s electoral commission and judiciary play crucial roles in ensuring the integrity of the electoral process and upholding the rule of law. To maintain a healthy democracy, it’s essential for opposition parties should to regroup, reorganise, and present a united front to provide a credible alternative to the ruling party. Institutions like the judiciary, electoral commission, and media should remain independent and impartial to ensure accountability and transparency. Citizens should engage actively in the democratic process, demanding accountability and transparency from their leaders.
PDP that was a behemoth is now asphyxiating. What do you think went wrong?
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Nigeria is facing a crisis that threatens its existence. Several factors contribute to its decline. PDP’s inability to manage its internal conflicts has led to a loss of cohesion and effectiveness. These disputes have cost the party crucial elections, including the 2015 presidential election and the recent presidential poll.
Many influential PDP members have defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), weakening the party’s structure and leadership. APC’s aggressive exploitation of PDP’s crises has further eroded its strength. PDP’s leadership crisis, exemplified by the controversy surrounding its acting National Chairman, Umar Damagun, has hindered the party’s ability to steer itself out of troubled waters. PDP’s insistence on retaining power in certain regions, despite demographic and political shifts led to strategic mistakes and further decline.
Alleged interference by APC to weaken opposition parties has also contributed to PDP’s crisis, according to some party chieftains like Dele Momodu. PDP’s misrule and mismanagement have cumulatively worsened its state, leaving it a shadow of its former self. To recover, PDP needs to address these issues, promote internal democracy, and develop effective leadership capable of navigating the party out of its current challenges.
The post Why insecurity continues to escalate -Mbala appeared first on The Sun Nigeria.
